Most of The Time

Time to solve out the hat problem from last time. There are probably a reasonable number of forms of the solution, but I suspect that they are all equivalent to the one I am about to give.

First of all, consider one of the three people (I will name this person Bob), he must have some strategy on when to guess and when to pass. Guessing all the time or passing all the time must each be non-optimal, since any guess has only a 1/3 chance of being right, you want to ensure that your guesses line up with your partners guesses in such a way that you are all wrong together, but you are right alone. Clearly the only trigger on when to guess must be the other players hat colours, so let us assume that Bob will guess when we see that the other two hat colours are the same, and he might as well guess that his hat is of the same colour (this is possibly not the most general solution, but I think most other forms of guessing for the first person can be mapped onto this isomorphically).

Bob will assume that the three hat colours are the same, and if that is not possible, he will pass.

Next, consider Alice, she will look at the hats that Bob and Eve are wearing (I'll just name people on the fly now). Bob will guess if Alice and Eve share a hat colour and in that case he will be guessing right or wrong and Alice can do nothing about it. So Alice may as well assume her hat colour is different from that of Eve, since if it is the same Bob is going to be guessing anyway. A reasonable guess for Alice is to guess her hat colour is the same as Bobs, unless Bob and Eve have the same hat colour in which case she should pass. In this way, she will sometime guess correctly, but will never guess correctly at the same time that Bob does it (and we know from similar problems that we want people to guess wrong together but correct alone).

If Alice sees that Bob and Eve have the same hat colour she will pass, otherwise she will guess the same as Bobs hat colour.

Eve might as well obey the same strategy as Alice, just to cover the case where Eve and Bob actually do share a hat colour and Alice does not.

If Eve sees that Bob and Alice have the same hat colour she will pass, otherwise she will guess the same as Bobs hat colour.

Looking over this, we can see that the players will win if somebody shares a hat colour with Bob, and will lose if nobody does. One can see that the probability of winning is then 5/9, or 15 of the 27 cases.

For a theoretical upper bound, imagine the possible space of hat distributions as some continuous region (I chose to imagine a disc). In that region, each person can choose a part of it for where their strategy will call for them to guess, and in that part they will guess correctly 1/3 of the time and incorrectly 2/3 of the time. So, take some region and colour it 1/3 green and 2/3 red.

Now take another region, which may have some overlap with the first region, you must also colour this one 1/3 green and 2/3 red, but if some part is coloured both green and red, it stays red (a right guess and a wrong guess is a loss). Clearly if we want more green and less red, it is best to have exactly the red parts overlap and the green parts be distinct. Finally we take a third region and colour it 1/3 green and 2/3 red. Any regions left uncoloured at this point are red (since if nobody guesses we lose).

If we have done this optimally we have 3/5 green and 2/5 red, since each person had one part green to two parts red, but they can all use the same red, there are three green parts at most. So theoretically the players can win at most 3/5 of the time, this comes out to 16.2 of the 27 cases, so 16 at best. We can see that our solution is slightly short of this theoretical optimal.

Ben has given me an argument for why 16 is not actually attinable, basically by just breaking down possible strategies, but its not particularily interesting to give here, so I won't bother with it, unless somebody really wants me to.